أثر معدل الصرف على التوازن الخارجي للاقتصاد المصري-كاقتصاد صغير مفتوح

Abstract EN

The study aims to study the effect of the exchange rate policy in Egypt on the most important balances of the Egyptian balance of payments, namely; the trade balance, the commodity balance and the capital balance (investment).

), to measure the consistency of the results of applying the policies of devaluation of the Egyptian pound on the balance of the external situation of Egypt - which was stimulated and supported by the International Monetary Fund - with what was planned, in terms of supporting the competitiveness of Egyptian exports of goods and services and attracting investments.

This is done by testing the hypothesis of a positive relationship between devaluation of the Egyptian currency and improving the status of the commodity trade balance, the service trade balance and the capital balance (investment.

The multiple regression equation was used using the OLS method during the period (1980-2019).

The study found that there is a positive relationship between the real exchange rate and the deficit of the commodity trade balance, meaning that an increase in the foreign exchange rate of the Egyptian pound leads to an increase in the deficit in this balance, and the negative relationship between the real exchange rate and the service trade balance, as an increase in the exchange rate leads to Due to the decrease in the surplus of the service balance, in addition to the negative impact of the foreign exchange rate on foreign investment flows as well.

This indicates the ineffectiveness of the policy of devaluing the Egyptian pound to improve the status of the commodity trade balance, the service trade balance, and the capital transactions balance (foreign investment