قياس أثر استهلاك السكر على إنتاج السكر في العراق باستخدام أنموذج (ARDL)‎

Abstract EN

The research aims to study and analyze the reality of the cultivation, production and productivity of the sugarcane crop in Iraq according to the data of serial years obtained from the official authorities in Iraq.

As well as the aim of the research to measure the amount of the gap between the reality of production and consumption of sugar cane in Iraq.

In addition to calculating the self-sufficiency rate of the sugarcane crop locally, and the research started from the hypothesis that the supply of sugarcane crop in Iraq suffers from deficit and is insufficient to meet the local demand, and thus the state resorts to importing it to compensate for the shortfall.

The results of the stability of the time series showed that the dependent variable (Y) represents production and the independent variable (X) stabilized from the level with the presence of a breaker and a breaker and a time trend at a significant level (1% , 5% and 10% ).

The results of the research also indicated that there is a direct relationship between consumption and production of sugar, meaning that an increase in consumption by (1% ) led to an increase in production by (0.34% ).

The study recommended subsidizing the prices of the sugarcane crop to motivate farmers to increase the cultivated areas of this crop, and thus to promote local production similar to that of the developed world.