أثر بعض متغيرات السياسة النقدية في جذب الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في العراق للمدة (2004-2018)‎

Abstract EN

The study aims to identify the performance of monetary policy and direct foreign investment in Iraq.

To identify the effect of the variables of that policy on foreign direct investment through the use of a descriptive approach and analysis to know the impact of monetary policy on foreign direct investment and whether this effect is negative or positive.

Then to work on remedying it since foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important variable to improve capital formation in the host country and increase capital for local investors, which made most countries exert efforts to attract foreign direct investment.

This study tries to ascertain the effect of some of the monetary policy variables on attracting foreign direct investment in Iraq.

To achieve this goal annual time series extending from 2004 to 2018 was used.

By presenting a standard model by conducting a test each of the Extended Dick Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips Perron Test (PP) and knowing the relationship of co-complementarity using the methodology of Bound test between foreign direct investment and monetary policy variables (inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate rate).

Estimating the relationship in the short term using the ARDL autoregressive model, and knowing the causal relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable (FDI).

The results show that there is a negative and positive effect on some of the monetary policy indicators used by the researcher.

For the positive effect, it concerns the inflation rate and interest rate indicators, as its affect, s on foreign direct investment in Iraq by (1.485) and (0.18414) respectively.

The negative impact was for the rate index The exchange rate, as its effect on foreign direct investment in Iraq was (-0.00024), as well as the results show the lack of joint integration between the variables of monetary policy and foreign direct investment in Iraq.

Through the Cranger causality test, the results confirm that there is no causal relationship between the variables of monetary policy and direct foreign investment in Iraq.

For the most important recommendations, it was to create an attractive investment environment for foreign direct investment, to facilitate the licensing of investment projects, to work to achieve greater independence of monetary policy and to follow a monetary policy that contributes to achieving an appropriate and appropriate investment environment for direct foreign investment.