قياس و تحليل العلاقة بين عجز الميزان التجاري و عجز الموازنة العامة في العراق للمدة (2019-2003)‎

Abstract EN

The paper focuses on analyzing the relationship between the trade balance deficit and the public budget deficit in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2019), Starting from the assumption of the effect of the balance deficit on the budget deficit, according to the nature of the Iraqi economy and its characteristics, where the oil resource, as an external variable, largely controls the structure of both the trade balance and the public budget, As the monetary and fiscal variables (exchange rate, interest rate, taxes, money supply) do not have a significant effect on the two deficits.

By following Granger's causal approach in measuring and determining the direction of causation, and by relying on quarterly data on the trade balance and the public budget, the paper concludes that there is a positive relationship from the trade balance deficit to the public budget deficit.