قياس أثر تغيرات أسعار النفط في الاستيرادات السلعية للعراق باستخدام منهجية الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع ARDL للمدة 1980-2019

Abstract EN

Oil accounts for great importance and interest in the Iraqi economy, as oil revenues constitute the broad base on which the economy relies in its fiscal and monetary policy and the overall activities of the national economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly, and this is what makes high oil prices reinforce oil revenues, which constitute the highest percentage in national revenues which increases the gap of structural imbalances in its sectors, thus continuing weak front and back linkages between economic sectors and continuing on the impact of that dependence on imports to finance the growing demand for goods and services.

According to the above, the research aims to confirm its hypothesis that changes in global oil prices have a significant impact on the value of commodity imports, whether this effect is direct or indirect, by measuring the relationship between oil prices and commodity imports to Iraq for the period 1980-2019 using the regression methodology Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique, and one of the findings of the research is to prove the existence of a positive relationship and mutual complementarity between oil prices and imports in the short and long term.