استقرارية دالة الطلب على الأرصدة النقدية الحقيقية في الاقتصاد العراقي في اطار أنموذج (ARDL)‎ للمدة (1985-2015)‎

Abstract EN

The research examined the estimation of demand function for money in Iraqi economy and determining the factors affecting it.

The methodology of the autoregressive distributed lag model {ARDL} was used to estimate the relationship in the short and long term, The study concluded that the function is affected by the following variables: GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, population, and money turnover.

There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables studied according to the Bound Test methodology, The value of the error correction parameter was negative and significant (-0.83), meaning that the demand for money requires more than one year (1÷0.83=1.20) to reach its long-term equilibrium value.

Free of some standard problems, The (CUSUM) and the (CUSUM SQ) aggregate demonstrate the structural stability of the estimated model and the predictability of the model was high according to the Theil test.