تقدير منهجية الانحدار الذاتي لدالة إنتاج النفط في العراق للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة

Abstract EN

The process of producing and exporting oil is an essential factor and influential in national income and has an important role in the economic activity and that what happened to Iraq after the fall of the former regime and the result of terrorist operations and the security turmoil that has clearly impacted the stoppage of many oil facilities (production, refining, refineries and gas.

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Etc.

) at full capacity or half of its production capacity at times, which led to the decline of the Iraqi situation among the oil group countries because of the failure and so far in the management of the oil sector.

And that Iraq is one of the first oil producing countries in the world and has a national scientific expertise that exceeds the countries of the region in the economic and oil fields and in all areas of oil industries, because these conditions can not be addressed to through a clear economic vision of the future of production and industry and hence the importance of research and so To determine the extent of the contribution of oil exports to production in the short and long term, in order to use the self-regression of the gaps distributed over the period (1993-2009) in Iraq, It was concluded that the research variables have the advantage of co-integration with the possibility of applying the ARDL model.

(Joint integration, time gap, long term, short term, marginal rate of substitution)