أثر التجارة الخارجية غير النفطية و بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي العراقي في سعر صرف الدينار العراقي باستعمال أنموذج Fmols للمدة (1990-2015)‎

Abstract EN

Economic study of the effects of foreign trade and some macroeconomic variables in the exchange rate using the FMOLS model for the period 1990 -2015 Bilal Najah Jubair Dr.

Ali Darub Kassar bilal.

najah89@gmail.

com Adk_1966@yahoo.

com dept.

Agri economics – College of Agricultural – university of BaghdadThe exchange rate plays a key role in daily economic life, which leads us to believe that no society is immune to the changes in the currency exchange market.

On this basis, the economic community is undergoing changes in the monetary systems.

, And through this the exchange rate is an important indicator and a key variable has a significant impact in many macroeconomic variables, including the poles of foreign trade (imports and exports).

The aim of the study is to explain the effect of some macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate, as well as the effect of foreign trade in commodities (excluding oil) in Iraq on the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the US dollar.

Data were obtained from secondary sources such as ministries, government agencies, Published and unpublished, and the search reached a range of results, including the incorrect float of the local currency under the opening of the economy is not controlled if the flotation requires a strong economic system to control the distortions that can occur in prices, There is an adverse effect on exports on the exchange rate, which is an illogical result, but it is consistent with many studies conducted in Iraq.

Finally, the research recommended using the method of floating control and control of the border in order to reduce the cheap goods that sink the Iraqi market and stop domestic production.