نظام أسعار الصرف في الدول النفطية : محاولة تطبيق نموذج Frankel (2018)‎ على حالة الجزائر

Abstract EN

This paper proposes adapting Frankel's (2018) model to the case of Algeria by tying the exchange rate to a "Currency plus Commodity Basket.

" The arrangement is intended to achieve the best of both corner regimes: automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks in the floating regime and an explicit nominal anchor for monetary policy in the fixed exchange regime to allow transparency and credibility.

A less ambitious empirical experiment revealed that the inverse value of a basket that includes the price of oil moved more and in the desired direction in each case.

Because the value of the currency automatically moves up and down according to the value of the oil barrel allowing the absorption of fluctuations in the global oil market.

The dinar exchange rate was generally moving in one direction and steadily declined in value within the managed floating regime.

In terms of the relationship nature between the exchange regime and some internal and external balance (inflation and reserves), simple statistical tests show that inflation tends to fall when the currency rises relative to the basket.

In contrast, inflation rises when the currency falls relative to the basket.

In contrast to the managed float regime, where the relationship was direct, this will avoid imported inflation.

Furthermore, when the currency's value rises relative to the basket, the balance of payments tends to fall and then rises when the currency depreciates relative to the basket.

On the contrary, the relationship was directly under the managed float regime.

The proposed regime is more conducive to national product competitiveness and preserves trade terms.

Finally, the paper claims that the current regime lacks the operational requirements for a successful float and that the proposed regime is subject to debate, amendment, and additional discrete empirical testing to demonstrate its credibility and applicability in Algeria