دراسة العلاقة السببية بين متغيرات المربع السحري ل Nicholas Kaldor و تقلبات أسعار البترول في الجزائر : تحليل قياسي باستخدام منهجية Toda-Yamamoto

Abstract EN

Through this paper, we tried to analyse and measure the causal relationship of the oil price variable on the one hand and both the economic growth rate, the inflation rate, the balance of payments and the unemployment rate on the other in Algeria during the period 1985-2017, which represents Caldor's magic square variables, using the Toda-Yamamoto methodology, where the absence of any causal link from the price of petroleum was found to be the balance of payments, while showing a trace of payments.

The results have also shown by using the PCA method that there is an inverse relationship between oil prices, inflation and unemployment, as well as a direct link between oil prices, economic growth and the balance of payments.