ضبط عجز الميزان التجاري المصري في إطار التنمية المستدامة : مصر 2030

Abstract EN

The sustainable development plan "Egypt 2030" focused on decrease the net trade balance deficit to 4% of the GDP, So, the problem of research was focused on how to control the Egyptian trade balance deficit.

The research hypothesized that there are a set of explanatory variables that, if they can be controlled, can adjust the Egyptian trade balance deficit in order to go according to the sustainable development plan of Egypt 2030, which are (the growth rate X1, the effective exchange rate X2, the population growth rate X3, the rate of foreign direct investment X4, The rate of international reserves X5), during the period from 1990 to 2019.

The researcher used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to test the extent of data stagnation.

The (ADRL) model was relied on autoregressive models for distributed time gaps, and the results showed that the explanatory variables explain 98% of the trade balance deficit, It also showed that there is an inverse relationship between the growth rate and the deficit in the trade balance, and there is a reverse causal relationship between the trade balance deficit and foreign direct investment, and there is a reverse causal relationship between the trade balance deficit and international reserves, the lower the deficit, the higher the international reserves.

The research recommends continuing to work on increasing the rate of economic growth.

It is also necessary to work on increasing r