الأسباب الظاهرية لزيادة النفقات العامة و أثرها في عجز الموازنة العامة في العراق للمدة (2004-2019)‎

Abstract EN

The study aimed to identify and analyze the most important apparent reasons for the increase in public expenditures in Iraq, as well as to measure and analyze the impact resulting from this increase in the public budget deficit in Iraq.

Therefore, it was relied on the application of standard methods through the application of the joint integration methodology using the autoregressive model with slow periods.

The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) The importance of the research lies in shedding light on the apparent reasons for the increase in public expenditures in Iraq, especially since the Iraqi economy followed an expansionary fiscal policy that generated a deficit in the public budget, which prompted the government to increase internal and external borrowing, which was reflected Its negative effects on the Iraqi economy.

The results were shown by (ARDL) test, The population number (LPOP) is linked to a direct relationship with the planned deficit, as increasing the population by one standard unit will lead to achieving a deficit of (4.462722), which is a strong indicator of the impact of population growth in Iraq on the planned deficit, while it did not show The study is any relationship between (LK), which represents the allocations of the Kurdistan region, and the planned deficit in Iraq, and this matter has caused a planned deficit in the years when crude oil prices rise.

The study concluded with a set of recommendations, the most important of which are: the need to work on finding a diversified production base that aims to reduce dependence on crude oil in order to contribute to financing the state's general budget, and this measure will avoid the budget's issue of permanent deficit, whether planned or actual.