قياس و تحليل بعض محددات النمو الاقتصادي في العراق باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة المتباطئة (ARDL)‎ للمدة (1995-2018)‎

Abstract EN

The research provides a measure and analysis some of the determinants of economic growth represented by (degree of economic exposure, investment, wide money supply M2, oil revenues, public budget deficit, current account deficit) and economic growth expressed in terms of average per capita gross domestic product at constant prices in the economy Iraqi for the period (1995-2018), Using modern standard models based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model {ARDL} methodology.

And the results of the stability test (stillness) showed that there is a mixture of variables, some of which reside at the original level I (0), and others at the first difference I (1), While the results showed that there is a long-term balanced relationship (Cointegration) between the variables studied according to the Bound Test methodology, the results of the standard analysis showed that the value of the error correction parameter was negative and significant, and appropriate tests proved the model was free of all standard problems and its high ability On forecasting, as well as the structural stability property of estimated model coefficients is achieved in the short and long term.