اختبار الأثر الانكماشي لأزمة العملة (2001م)‎ على الناتج المحلي في مصر

Abstract EN

Test the contractionary effect of the currency crisis in Egypt (2001) on national output the objective of the paper is to investigate the cffects of a large devaluation of domestic currency, on the national output of Egypt during the currency criscs episode, to test whether the currency depreciations have expansionary or contractionary effects on national output.

this paper also aims to investigate the channels of spill-over effects, from the currency criscs to national output.

Egypt frequently experiences currency crises, and it is difficult to investigate them all.

this paper rather conccntratcs on the last currency crisis incident-on July 2001.

the econometric analysis of this paper includes two tests ; first, a regression analysis of Egyptian national output determinants, including the impact of exchange rate, and dummy variables of the currency criscs.

second, a causality test of the relationship between excliange rates and national output.

the paper observed several channels of spill-over effects from the currency crises, to national output, such as the increase of the prices of imported inputs, the deterioration of foreign investment returns, capital flight, currency substitutions, market expectations, banking crises, and the liquidity crunch.

the paper concluded that there is no significant relationship between the deterioration of national output, and the currency criscs in Egypt.

in addition, the paper concluded that there is a strong statistical significance of the relationship between national output, and real effective exchange rate movements.