دراسة اقتصادية لبعض معايير التحارة الخارجية الليبية خلال الفترة (2000-2019)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to identify the features and development of Libyan foreign trade by addressing the following sub-objectives: (1) study and analysis of the structure of Libyan foreign trade, and (2) calculating the criteria for the efficiency of Libyan foreign trade.

The study is based in the analysis of its various data and its economic phenomena on the methods of descriptive and quantitative analysis for the purpose of reaching the results that serve the objectives of the study.

During the study period as a whole, it was found that the average trade balance during this period was an estimated decrease of 4.303 million dinars at a slight annual growth rate of about 2%, as well as a review of the results of the Libyan foreign trade efficiency standards Compared to the second period (2011-2019), these criteria were the rate of Libyan economic dependence on the outside world, the rate of coverage of Libyan exports for Libyan imports, the performance rate of the Libyan foreign trade sector and finally the Average tendency of import and the Average tendency of exports.

It is also found that the Libyan economy is subject to the phenomenon of instability in foreign trade, which may lead to the negative signal of the values of the marginal export and the marginal tendency to import for some years, and thus it is difficult to calculate the geometric average of the values of this marginal , and this phenomenon is overcome in this study by calculating the marginal tendency to create a simple relationship between both national income as an explanatory dependent variable and the value of foreign trade (or the value of exports or the value of imports) as a dependent variable in the double logarithmic equation .

The equation shows that the increase in the value of Libyan exports leads to an increase in national income in the period (2000-2010) period of economic stability at a higher rate than the period (2011-2019), i.e.

during the period of economic instability, mainly due to the increase in the impact of Libyan exports in the first period on the impact of Libyan imports on the increase in the rate of increase in Libyan exports because it dependence on oil export .

A review of the features and development of Libyan foreign trade shows that the average value of exports during the study was about 34979 million dinars at a growth rate estimated at about 18%, as well as that the average value of imports during the study was period about 39283 million dinars at an estimated growth rate of about 14%, while it was found that the value of the surplus in the Libyan trade balance fluctuated between the increase and decrease during the study period as a whole.