دراسة قياسية وتنبؤية لفيروس كوفيد 19 في الجزائر باستخدام النماذج الرمادية

Abstract EN

The problematic of the study was about the efficacy of gray models in predicting cumulative COVID 19 infections in Algeria based on a small sample, for this purpose, the study was divided into two sections, where in the first section we touched on statistics about the COVID 19 in Algeria, as for the second section, it was related to the applied study for predict the cumulative infections of the COVID 19 in Algeria for the period between 01-08-2021 and 08-15-2021 through a sample of infections extended from 28-07 to 31- 07 of 2021, and after conducting the various stages of GM (1,1) methodology and based on the Matlab program, we arrived at the predicted injuries and after comparing them with the real values, we reached the accuracy of the model in prediction, especially during the first five days, and based on the criteria for measuring the quality of the model we concluded the accuracy of this model, which can rely on its results in take short-term decisions and measures for combating to the pandemic