سلاسل ماركوف و استخدامها للتنبؤ بمعدل البطالة في الجزائر للفترة 2007-2018

Abstract EN

Probability theory is one of the sciences that has developed recently, and has contemporary applications where economic variables that fulfill the conditions of random processes are considered a field for applications of probability theory and related topics.

in this research paper, we chose a quantitative method of prediction, which is Markov chains, which is concerned with studying the behavior of random variables and predicting them in a probabilistic form, where we first explain the various methods for calculating probabilities, until the goal of understanding random systems is achieved later, defining them and showing the method of building a Markovian model for prediction.

we found through the study that the prediction of the unemployment rate in the studied period is valid in the short term only by using the Markov chain model, as the stability of the model during the long term did not provide us with any results due to the multiplicity of solutions.

we also concluded that the probability of decreasing the unemployment rate is greater than its probability of stabilizing, and the latter is greater than its probability of increasing.