دراسة إحصائية تحليلية لدرجتي الحرارة العظمى والصغرى اليومية المتطرفة بمنطقتي عسير والباحة كمؤشرات لمظاهر التغير المناخي خلال الفترة 1985-2017

Abstract EN

This study aims to determine the general trends of extreme daily temperatures as indicators of the probable climate change during the period from January 1, 1985 to December 31, 2017, by using the frequency analysis of the hot days with a daily temperatures exceeding the maximum temperature average and the cold days with a daily temperatures less than the minimum temperature average during 33 continuous years at Abha and al-Baha stations.

several statistical parameters such as the central tendency (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variance), the standard error of the mean and the standard deviation were also applied to analyze the frequency of the hot and cold waves.

the ratio method and the semi-averages method were used to analyzing the general trends of the hot and cold waves.

the t-student test was applied to determine the statistical significance of the general trends of extreme daily temperatures as indicators of the probable climate change in the mountainous Asir region.

the results of the statistical tests of the semi-averages showed the heterogeneity of the general trends of the daily temperatures and the hot and cold waves.

so that it is premature to confirm the climate change problem without reservation.

also, the analysis of the general trends of daily extremes temperatures in other regions enhances the significance of the findings of this study.