استخدام نماذج التمهيد الأسى في التنبؤ بإنتاج محصولي القمح والفول

Abstract EN

The study aimed to predict the production of wheat and bean crops using the time series for the production of wheat and bean crops during the period (1987- 2019), which took a random, unstable context.

Durban Watson test was used to verify the autocorrelation between the residuals in the time series under study where the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function showed the existence of the problem of autocorrelation between the residuals.

using the exponential smoothing models, which is one of the time-series processing models showed high efficiency to predict the production of wheat and bean crops.

the best model among the models proposed in this study to predict the yield of wheat and beans was the double exponential smoothing (holt), where the prediction production for wheat crop is estimated at 57495, 57005, 56515 and 56025 thousand Ardeb during the period (2022-2025), respectively.

the prediction for the production of bean crop is estimated at 686, 652, 618, 585 thousand Ardeb during the period (2022-2025), respectively.

the study recommends using exponential smoothing models as one of the ways to address the instability of time series, taking into account the predictions given by the proposed models to develop future plans to face the shortfall in the production of the wheat and bean crops under study, as well as applying these models to more important strategic crops.