مدى توافق توقعات النماذج الكمية المستخدمة في التنبؤ بالفشل المالي في المصارف المتخصصة العاملة في البيئة الليبية : دراسة تطبيقية على مصرف التنمية خلال الفترة 2010-2015

Abstract EN

The objective of the study is to measure the compatibility of results of the most commonly used quantitative models utilizing in predicting financial failure (Altman, Kida, and Sherrod) regarding their predictions of the financial failure of specialized banks operating in the Libyan environment during the period 2010-2015.

Having gathering, organizing and analyzing data, the study reaches a few findings, the most important of which is: the quantitative models most commonly used to predict financial failure can give results in the environment of specialized banks operating in Libya, which can be described as relatively high in contrast, one year before the date of the failure.

Based on the results obtained, the study suggests that in case of obtaining different results related to financial failure prediction models, specialized banks operating in the Libyan environment should use other indicators for early detection of financial failure, in addition to wellknown models designed for this purpose, in order to raise the degree of confidence, in case of a particular model being relied upon.