دراسة قياسية لأثر صدمات أسعار النفط على التوازن الخارجي في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1980-2019)‎

Abstract EN

This paper tries to examine the nature of the response of external economic balances, including the balance of payments and the exchange rate to oil price shocks in Algeria during the period 1980-2019, using the vector-auto regression (VAR) model.

the study concluded that there is a double effect (positive and negative) of the oil price shock on the external balance in Algeria, this is due to the increase in the volume of imports and the intervention of the monetary authorities in the exchange rates control.

in addition, there is a one-way causal relationship between oil prices and the balance of payments.