أثر عجز الموازنة في أداء عينة من الأسواق المالية العربية

Abstract EN

The research aims to provide a comprehensive and in-depth picture of the theoretical frameworks and empirical studies that framed and explained the mechanism of transmission of direct and indirect influence through which the budget deficit can play an important and prominent role in interpreting the performance of the stock market, as well as building a quantitative model capable of clarifying the size and direction of the impact the budget deficit and some other controlling variables (inflation, interest rate, economic growth, money supply) as illustrative variables, in the stock market performance indicators, which were expressed by the market index, the market value of traded shares, and stock turnover being response variables, for a sample of Arab countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Lebanon, Bahrain) for the period (1997-2019), to achieve this, it was relied on the aggregate regression methodology (PRM), the fixed effect model (FEM), and the random effect model (REM), which are based on the balanced double data (balanced panel data), in order to obtain results closer to reality and reach an analysis it can be used in investment decisions, and the results revealed the participation of the budget deficit in the negative impact on the stock market performance indicators for the sample countries, decision makers must move towards financing public debt by means of stimulating the bond market, through the use of non-inflationary tools.