تأثير تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام في السوق العالمية على معدلات البطالة في العراق للمدة (1970-2020)‎

Abstract EN

The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between crude oil prices in the international market and unemployment rates in Iraq for the period (1970-2020) using the NARDL model, in addition to estimating the impact of a shock in crude oil prices in the global market on unemployment rates in Iraq.

The research found a long-term, non-linear inverse equilibrium relationship between crude oil prices and unemployment rates in Iraq.

In addition, an increase in oil prices by a certain percentage leads to a decrease in unemployment rates in Iraq by twice this percentage in the long term; But the decline in crude oil prices by a certain percentage will lead to an increase in unemployment rates in Iraq, double this percentage in the long term.

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