التنبؤ بإنتاج و استهلاك و الفجوة الغذائية لمحصول الرز في العراق باستخدام طريقة التمهيد الأسي

Abstract EN

The aim of this research is to predict the production, consumption and food gap of the rice crop in Iraq, as well as the economic factors that affect the self-sufficiency ratio and the quantity of imports with the time series (2015-1980).

Based on the statistical program (Minitab & SPSS) Is the Exponential Smoothing method for Forecasting the production, consumption, and nutritional gap of the rice crop.

Two types of single and double (2016-2025) was the single Exponential Smoothing method for having the lowest MSE value of (11450.4).

As for the consumption of the rice yield for the period (2025-2016), the double Exponential Smoothing method was the most accurate (MSE), which is 87100.7.

As for the food gap, the single Exponential Smoothing is the best predictor for the same period in terms of the lowest value (MSE) 84100.1.

The self-sufficiency ratio was affected by five factors (cultivated area, Imports, available for consumption, import / production ratio, the dummy variable representing years of blockade), and Factors affecting the quantity of imports (rice production, available for consumption, border prices, the number of the populationAl- Muthanna University All rights reserved