دراسة تحليلية للوضع الراهن للزيوت النباتية في مصر

Abstract EN

Vegetable oils are the main source of oil in the world and are extracted from oilseed crops.

the problem of research is that the production of vegetable oils.

does not meet local consumption requirements.

the research aims to study the development of production, consumption, gap, self-sufficiency ratio, average per capita share and imports of frozen liquid oils during the period 2000-2015.

highlighting the most important economic variables affecting the gap and consumption of liquid and frozen oils, the expectation of consumption and production, the self sufficiency rate and the gap of liquid and frozen oils in the years 2020 and 2025, as well as the current status of the most important food oils represented in soybeans, sunflower and maize.

the results of the research showed the following: -the production of liquid vegetable oil has taken an increasing general trend at a statistical rate of 4.21 thousand tons annually representing about 2.38% of the general average of about 177 thousand tons during the period (2000-2015).

-the volume of the gap of frozen oils took an increasing general trend with a statistical significance of about 2.01 thousand tons representing about 10.5% of the general average of about 19.12 thousand tons.

the most important economic variables affecting the size of the gap of liquid and frozen vegetable oils are population, self-sufficiency and imports.

the limiting factor indicated that about 84% and 80% of the changes in the gap of liquid and frozen oils are due mainly to the change in the previous variables.

the most important variables affecting the consumption of liquid and frozen vegetable oils are production, imports and population, and about 65% and 91% respectively of the changes in consumption due to the change in the previous variables.

the results of the forecast for the year 2020-2025 indicated that the consumption of liquid oils was estimated at 404.2, 438.4 thousand tons, and for frozen oils about 558.6, 606 thousand tons, respectively.

for production, it was estimated at 229.4, 250, while the self-sufficiency rate was estimated at 56.8%, 57.1% for liquid oils and 117%, 128% for frozen oils, respectively.

the volume of the gap was estimated at 188, 174.8 thousand tons for liquid oils and about 94.5, 157.7 thousand tons for frozen oils, respectively.

the most important variables affecting soybean oil, sunflower and maize during the period 2000-2015 were found to be the most influential variables for soybean oil production and average per capita share as they increased at a significant annual rate of about 4.86 thousand tons, 5 thousand tons respectively.

the most important variables affecting sunflower oil are consumption, gap and imports, and the average per capita share are increased by an annual average of about 19 thousand tons, 18.5 thousand tons, 21.5 thousand tons, 0.2 kg / year, respectively, and for corn oil is the production which decreased at an annual rate of about 1.05 thousand tons and the size of the gap and imports, which increased at a significant annual rate of about 1.36 thousand tons, 1.72 thousand tons, respectively the research has reached a number of recommendations 1- expanding the cultivation of oily crops in the new lands 2- encouraging farmers to grow oily crops, leading to increased production and reduce the size of the food gap and imports by setting satisfactory prices for the conflict.

3- the need for compatibility in the cultivation of oily crops between cultivated varieties and the specifications of oilseeds manufacturing.

4- expansion of the system of agricultural contracting of agricultural crops, being the basis for the manufacture of vegetable oils and utilization of the resulting waste in the feed industry.