ديناميكية التقلب في أسعار المواد الغذائية و أسعار الوقود في المملكة العربية السعودية في ظل رؤية 2030 خلال الفترة 1990-2019

Abstract EN

Food and fuel are essential commodities that are closely related to any society, as the process of food production and consumption is linked to fuel as one of the cost factors, so the study aimed to find long and short term relationships between fuel price volatility (gasoline and diesel) and food price volatility in addition to the causal relationship between them, by using time series data during the period (1990-2019), data were collected from various sources, and to achieve the study objectives, appropriate statistical and standard methods were used, where the stability of the series was tested by phillips perron tests (P-P), and a joint integration test according to Johansen methodology, in addition to using the VECM-directed error correction model, as well as the study used Granger's causal approach to examine the causal relationship between the variables, , Finally, the study used the Thail factor test to predict future values of the food price index, as the stability results revealed the instability of the study variables at the original level and their stability when taking their first differences, as indicated by the Johansson joint integration test that there Long-term equilibrium relationships between the variables included in the study, and the results of Granger's causation test indicated the existence of a single A trend that extends from gasoline prices to the food price index and not vice versa, Thail testing also demonstrated the model's ability and efficiency to predict future food price index values, as the study recommends encouraging policies and interventions that help reduce expectations about food and fuel prices, such as market information, and relying on studies and research instead.