قياس و تحليل أثر المديونية الخارجية على النمو الاقتصادي في البرازيل للمدة (2005-2019)‎

Abstract EN

This study dealt with the concepts of external debt and economic growth and the impact of external debt and some selected economic variables (exchange rate, total exports, inflation rate) as independent variables on the economic growth rate in Brazil for the period (2005-2019), as the GDP was adopted The total in dollars as a dependent variable as an indicator of economic growth, and the model was estimated according to the autoregressive methodology for the distributed slowdown periods, and according to the limits test for joint integration, it was found that there is a relationship of joint integration, so the analysis was done in the short and long terms, the estimated model was free of standard problems such as (autocorrelation, multiple linear correlation, heterogeneity of variance), and that its remainders are distributed normally, and the model was stable according to stability tests (Cusum, Cusum of Square), and one of the most important results of the study is that the relationship of external debt with economic growth in Brazil was positive in the short term and negative in the long term, and the relationship of total exports and exchange rate to economic growth in Brazil was positive in both terms, while the relationship of inflation rate to economic growth in Brazil was negative.

In the short term, and in the long term it was positive, the study came out with a set of recommendations, the most important of which is, the developing countries that aspire to achieve economic development should rely on internal sources of financing, with the need to direct external loans towards investment and activities that contribute to promoting economic growth.