قياس أثر أسعار السكر على إنتاج السكر في العراق باستعمال اختبار (VAR)‎

Abstract EN

The research aims to study and analyze the reality of the cultivation, production and productivity of the sugarcane crop in Iraq according to the serial data of years obtained from the official authorities in Iraq, as well as the aim of the research to measure the effect of sugar prices on sugar production in Iraq, and the research was launched from the hypothesis that the width of the cane crop Sugar in Iraq suffers from a deficit and its insufficiency to meet the local demand, and thus the state resorts to importing it to compensate for the shortfall, and the results of the stability of time series by ADF showed the instability of time series at the level of the two variables (Y) that represent production and the independent variable (X) that represents sugar prices.

After taking the first difference of the two variables, it settled on the level with the presence of a breaker, a breaker, a time trend, the ence of a breaker and a time trend, at a significant level (1% , 5% and 10% ).

By (1% ), it led to an increase in production by (0.12% ).

The results of the Johann test also indicated that there is a joint complementarity relationship between the variables of the study, and the study recommended support for sugarcane crop prices to motivate farmers to increase the cultivated areas of this this results in the improvement of local production, similar to that of the developed world.