التباين الزماني و المكاني لاتجاهات و تكرارات الجفاف في منطقة الفرات الأوسط

Abstract EN

The study of the long-term recurrence of the drought phenomenon is necessary to adapt and mitigate the risks of drought, as the study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variation of the trend and frequency of droughts in the Middle Euphrates for the period (1950-2019), for twelve grid points for rain and temperature data derived from the center.

Climate Research (CRU TS v4.04), using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for four-time scales (1, 3, 6 and 12) months, using the (Rho) test, the results show an increase in the general trend of (-0.17) for each decade in all time scales of statistical significance, and it becomes clear that the driest years during the studied period of time are the years (1998, 2000, 2008, 2017).

A drought rate has reached 51% in the past 70 years, and the last decade has been the most severe.

Drought by 73% , as the last two decades, witnessed a steady increase in the categories of severe drought, extreme and very extreme, in contrast to a decrease in moderate conditions at a rate of (-7.1) per decade with a severe decrease in the last decade, as the percentage of moderate conditions reached 27% Interestingly.

The homogeneity of spatial changes in the study is concerned with providing a long-term local assessment of the fluctuations of drought that can contribute to a better understanding of climate change and its potential impacts on agriculture, food security, water, vegetation degradation, soil, and water resource management.