الاحتياطيات النفطية المؤكدة و التنمية الاقتصادية في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية للفترة (1980-2018)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to measure and analyse the effect of the proved oil reserves on economic development in Algeria during the period (1980-2018), has been using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL).

The error correction and elasticities model demonstrated the significance of all variables between 1% and 5%, with the exception of the projects funding variable, which was not significant, and as expected, the error correction factor was negative (-0.

402232) and significant (0.

0000), which indicates that the estimated model includes a mechanism for returning to balance again.

This study arrives to a long-term balanced relationship between the economic development and proved reserves and government expenditure, it is a result with a clear indication of the extent to which the Algerian economy depends on its oil resources in drawing up strategies and plans for economic development.

However there is no long-term balanced relation between the economic development and the monetary policy and project financing, this indicates the weakness of the monetary policies adopted, especially in the direction of credit in projects that are not productive and are not necessary for the Algerian economy.