العلاقة ما بين معدل التضخم والتغيرات في سعر الصرف والميزان التجاري في السودان للفترة 1999-2017

Abstract EN

Aimed to clarify relation and correlation between exports and imports on the inflation rate also on exchange rate to measure it between them by standard models, the hypothesis are a positive effect between exports and the inflation rate, with a negative inverse effect between imports and inflation rate also positive effect between exports and exchange rate, with an inverse effect between imports and the exchange rate, also there is a positive effect between the exchange rate and the inflation rate, used the descriptive method in addition to the econometric method to measure the relationship between variables using the least-squares method, by testing three multiple regression models.

resulting the inflation rate has a high sensitivity and affected by the exchange rate, which prove changing of consumption and its dependence on external imports of products, also it is effected by the value of imports of goods and services without affected by changes in exports, also exchange rate is effected by the value of imports and exports, which prove that the determined value of exchange rate dependence on other factors such as speculation and trade in the forging currency or goods outside the official channels.

it recommended restructuring the economy and returning the transformation of total consumption, depending on the interior, by financing agricultural strategic projects that enhance consumption.

also adopting a liberalization policy to address distortions in the overall indicators each exchange rate to reflect its real values and the lifting of commodity support, while implementing programs to address negative effects.

finally, support the productive sectors by exempting from taxes and fees and support entrepreneurial projects focusing on the agricultural sector and related industries, then other industries.