قياس أثر تقلبات أسعار النفط على قاعدة الدين العام في العراق للمدة (2003-2020)‎

Abstract EN

The research dealt with a study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the rules of financial discipline represented in the public debt base in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2020) as it is one of the rentier economies that depend mainly on fluctuating oil revenues with the fluctuation of oil prices in global markets and therefore the general budget suffers from The state of instability and the government resorting to borrowing to fill the deficit in the public budget and then increase the burden of the public debt.

The importance of the research lies in analyzing and explaining the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public debt.

Modern standard models (ARDL) have been used to estimate time series and indicate the nature of the relationship between variables The study concluded that some years have recorded financial control in this rule and some of them exceeded the safe ratios according to the “Maastricht” Treaty, and that there is an inverse relationship between oil price fluctuations and the public debt base in the short and long term.