تقدير نموذج الطلب الكلي في الجزائر باستخدام نظام المعادلات الآنية : (SLS2 )‎، (SLS3)‎، (FIML)‎ للفترة (1980-2019)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to build a model for aggregate demand that helps to make accurate economic decisions, through a comprehensive census of all the macroeconomic variables of the model, as well as determining the mutual influence relationships between them during the period (1980-2019).

We used in this study methods of simultaneous estimation of relationships and equations, and this is due to the presence of a common effect of the variables involved in the macroeconomic model and also to avoid the bias that exists in the case of applying the ordinary least squares method to simultaneous equations.

In order to reach the best estimates, we estimated the system equations using three methods (2SLS, 3SLS and FIML) using the Eviews 09 statistical program.

The results of the estimation concluded that the parameters estimated in the second method (3SLS) is better than the parameters estimated by the first and third methods (FIML and 2SLS), by obtaining estimates that are consistent with economic theory and with actual reality supported by the statistical theory.