أثر التطور المالي في النمو الاقتصادي: دراسة قياسية للمملكة العربية السعودية باستخدام نموذج Ardl للفترة (1990-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to investigate the impact of financial development on economic growth in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia using the annual data for the period (1990-2020); the indicators of financial development included the loans directed to the private sector to the GDP, the liquidity indicator as a proxy for the ratio of money mass to the GDP, the size of the financial market represented by the stock market capitalization to the GDP, and the financial market liquidity represented by the trade rate, in addition to using the real GDP growth rate as a proxy of economic growth.

the results of the unit root test (ADF) showed that the study variables are stationary at the level and first difference, which required the use of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model; where the results of the model tests showed the existence of a co-integration relationship through the (bound test); the results also showed a positive and significant effect of the cash liquidity index relative to the GDP in the long term on economic growth and the absence of an impact in the short term.

the study also showed a negative impact of the index of loans directed to the private sector relative to GDP on the growth rate.

the economic growth rate was not significant in the short and long term, while the statistical relationship between the Tadawul stock exchange indicators and the economic growth rate was not significant in the short and long term.

the results also showed the absence of a causal relationship between the indicators of financial development and the economic growth rate.