أثر مؤشرات التوازن الخارجي على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر للفترة (1970-2019)‎ : دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج VECM

Abstract EN

This study aims to determine the impact of external balance indicators on economic growth in Algeria during the period 1970-2019 by using time series for each of the trade balance, direct foreign investment flows and gross domestic product, by applying the vector error correction model (VECM).

By using both Dickey test - Fuller and Phillips-Peru, the results of the study revealed that all time series are stable in the first difference and integrated with the same degree (1), In addition, through the use of Johansson test, the sudy concluded that there is an existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship.

As it has faound that the error correction coefficient in the VECM model of economic growth is negative and significant, which confirmed the existence of a long equilibrium relationship, and that the trade balance has a positive effect , in contrast to the direct foreign investment flows which negativly affect the economic growth in Algeria in the long term