أثر الشمول المالي على الاستقرار المالي في دول شمال إفريقيا

Abstract EN

This paper aims to estimate the effects of some measures of financial inclusion on financial stability to investigate the nature of their nexus in 5 North African Arab countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) during the period from 2004-2017.

Financial stability was proxied by Bank Z-score.

As for the variables of financial inclusion, they were of two dimensions: the use of financial services proxied by outstanding loans from commercial banks, and access to the financial system proxied by the number of commercial bank branches and the number of ATMs, in addition, the per capita GDP as a control variable.

In order to achieve this goal, we used the dynamic PVAR model with fixed effects.

The results showed that increasing the number of commercial bank branches enhances financial stability, on the contrary, ATMs have a negative impact on the financial system stability.

Larger loans also cause a higher probability of bank default.