أثر تقلبات العوائد النفطية على معدلات التضخم في العراق: دراسة قياسية للمدة 1990-2019

Abstract EN

The study aims to analyze the relationship between oil revenues and inflation rates in Iraq.

The study used time-series data on oil revenues and inflation rates for the period 1990-2019.

The study depends on the analytical approach to reach its goals and solve its problems.

The study found that there is a co-integration between oil revenues and inflation rates, and the trend towards its equilibrium level in the long-term can be determined.

But it was found that the relationship between both variables is an inverse relationship, as an increase in the value of the variable (REV) by (1% ) leads to a decrease in the value of the variable (INF) by approximately (-4.184), and this result is not consistence with the pre-expectations of the study.

This result is consistent with the pre-expectations of the study, as in the long run, the variables are heading towards their equilibrium values.

Finally, the study presented several suggestions, including; Adopting an appropriate monetary policy to reduce the new monetary issuance and the money supply that is not matched by an increase in the supply of national goods and services.

In addition to determining the amount of production and export of oil resources, working to preserve this wealth and carrying out the process of sustainable development to preserve the rights of future generations.