قياس وتحليل مدى استجابة أدوات الموازنة العامة والناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العراق لصدمات أسعار النفط للمدة (2004-2017)‎

Abstract EN

The controversy of the research represented by knowing whether there is a response to the public budget and GDP in Iraq to the shocks that occur in oil prices, and the research aims primarily to prove the validity of the hypothesis by highlighting the study and analysis of the response of public budget tools and GDP in Iraq to oil price shocks, The research problem was represented by a main question: What is the response of the tools of the general budget and the GDP in Iraq to oil price shocks throughout the research period, and the research was based on a main hypothesis that the response of the tools of the general budget and GDP in Iraq to oil price shocks was consistent with the logic of economic theory And then, after fluctuations and change in oil prices for more than a year (five seasons), they begin to run contrary to the concept and logic of economic theory, and modern standard models have been adopted in the research, including immediate response functions (IRF) and autoregressive vectors (VAR).

The research reached a number of results, the most important of which are three responses that were proven by the results of the first impulse response functions, which is the response of the general revenue to change in oil prices The second is the response of the gross domestic product to the change in oil prices, and the third is the response of public spending to the change in oil prices.

One of the most important recommendations of the research is to work to reduce dependence on the oil sector, through the establishment of a sovereign fund for the state, through which surpluses in oil revenues resulting from high oil prices are exploited and invested in development and productive projects and the development of the private industrial and agricultural sectors and the optimal employment of those surpluses that contribute to Reducing unemployment and inflation rates.