دراسة أثر صدمة سعر صرف الدينار على معدل التضخم في الجزائر باستخدام نماذج أشعة الانحدار الذاتي الهيكلية SVAR للفترة (1980-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This research paper aimed to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and the inflation rate in Algeria during the period (1980-2020), and to study the extent to which the inflation rate responded to the structural shocks that occur at the level of the dinar exchange rate, based on the structural vector auto regression model (SVAR).

the results of the study, through the impulse response function and the variance decomposition, found that the occurrence of a structural shock in the exchange rate of the dinar against the US dollar by one unit leads to a positive impact on the inflation rate in Algeria, reaching a maximum level of approximately 0.56% at the end of the first year, then 0.29% at the end of the second year, however, with the beginning of the third year, the effect rate decreases, and the effect becomes almost non-existent during the sixth year.

in the sense that the improvement of the exchange rate level works to absorb the inflation shock and work on economic stability.