دراسة اقتصادية للفجوة الغذائية من الذرة الشامية في مصر

Abstract AR

Despite the efforts made by the state in recent years in the field of developing strategic crops, especially the maize crop, to contribute to solving the problems of the animal and poultry production sector, production is still not sufficient to meet the necessary needs to meet the requirements of the livestock and poultry sector, especially in light of the current global crisis.

Which led to a decrease in food supplies in the world, especially cereals, which resulted in a significant increase in its prices, in addition to an increase in transportation costs, which significantly affected the Egyptian trade balance and the demand for foreign currency.

Which requires studying the current situation in light of the crisis the world is witnessing, and working to find mechanisms that help in expanding its production, as well as trying to make the most of local production in solving part of the problems of animal production in Egypt.

The research reached a set of results, the most important of which are the following:

It was found from the economic indicators that the total yield per acre ranged between a minimum of about 2, 193 pounds in 1999/2000 and a maximum of about 7848 pounds in 2013/2014, with a general average of about 4, 945 pounds/feddan, with an annual growth rate of about 9.5% at Probability level 0.01, with an increase of about 476.38 pounds / feddan, and the net yield per acre ranged between a minimum of about 752.2 pounds / feddan in 2000/2001 and a maximum of about 3220 pounds / feddan in 2011/2012 with a general average of about 1984.25 pounds / feddan, with an annual growth rate of about 9.2% at the 0.01 probability level, with an increase of about 182.55 pounds / feddan.

It was found that the self-sufficiency rate ranged between a minimum of about 40.7% in 2018, and a maximum of about 71.3% in 2010 with an engineering average of about 53.2% , and the period of meeting the local production for consumption of maize ranged between a minimum of about 5.3 months in the year 2012 and a maximum of about 7.5 months in 2019 with an annual average of about 6.2 months during the study period.

The world has recently witnessed great variations in the prices of maize as a result of the conditions that have affected the world in the recent period, especially in light of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis, where the average price of a ton during the average study period amounted to about 178.1 dollars / ton, with the value of imports amounting to about 1477.1 million dollars, compared to the average The price of a ton during the current crisis period, which amounted to about 350 dollars / ton, with a value of imports amounted to about 2885.2 million dollars.

This indicates that if the same quantity of imports remains stable, the price and value of wheat imports doubled by 1.96 times each.

A quick rural survey was conducted for a research sample from Al-Buhaira governorate, as it is one of the largest governorates producing maize, where about 60% of the sample farmers confirmed that the inventory of cultivated areas for maize is inaccurate, as a number of farmers register in the inventory lists of the Agricultural Association on the cultivation of maize Shamia, while in nature they plant other competing crops in the cycle in order to benefit from the support provided for the production requirements
of the corn crop, as it comes at the forefront of the summer field crops that receive the highest fertilizer courses, as one acre of corn gets 5 sacks of urea or 7 sacks of nitrate, which is Thus, they agree on all competing field crops in the cycle, such as rice and cotton, for which fertilizer courses have about 2 or 3 sacks of nitrate.

About 50% of the hussar farmers confirmed that the farmers benefit from selling silage at a higher price than selling the crop in the case of maturity, with the benefit of another Nile cycle, saving time, effort and costs, in addition to adding a rewarding return while reducing costs.

About 85% of the hoss farmers confirmed that there are problems in the yellow corn production process, which is the drying process, where the moisture content of the crop is about 24% , and there are no places for drying and drying the crop, which exposes it to rapid rot, which leads to the cultivation of sorghum and selling it as silage.