السياسة المالية وأثرها في عرض النقد: دراسة تحليلية قياسية للاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (2010-2020)‎

Abstract EN

The importance of the research is that the fiscal policy has many effects on the overall economy, and then it may have an impact on monetary variables, specifically the money supply in the narrow sense, so the current research tries to reveal those monetary effects, which monetary policy is the direct and specific responsible for it, and Therefore, these effects pressure the monetary policy to withdraw the increasing monetary mass as a result of the fiscal policy measures represented by government spending financed from oil rents or borrowing from commercial banks, so the current research aims to measure the impact of fiscal policy in Iraq through government spending and according to the method of financing it in the money supply.

In the narrow sense and within the time limits of (20102020), and the research on the standard side and using the ARDL model found a direct and significant relationship between government spending and money supply in the narrow sense, because the increase in government spending financed by oil rents leads to an increase in the money in circulation with Individuals, but this effect is weak because the spent dinar is exchanged for dollars, which gives the ability of the central bank to withdraw the dinar through the currency window.

Another tip is that financing government spending through sad transfers will increase the money supply by borrowing part of the reserves of commercial banks and pumping them through government spending for the circulation of individuals, and this part has the greatest impact on the money supply, and this can be observed in the year 2020 Despite the decrease in government spending, the money supply increased significantly from 2019, due to the increase in borrowing, specifically by treasury transfers and in dinars due to the drop in international oil prices, which poses a challenge to the Central Bank in withdrawing the money supply in dinars, and in light of this, the researcher recommended By forming a joint economic committee between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq for the purpose of coordinating between the fiscal and monetary policies for the purpose of not conflicting between the work of the two policies in relation to government spending and money supply.