استخدام منهجية (ARDL)‎ للتحقق من نموذج ماكينون- شو (McKinnon–Shaw)‎: دراسة حالة مصر خلال الفترة (1977- 2020)‎

Abstract EN

Financial liberalization gained attention in the early 1970s due to the seminal work of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) where they argued that liberalizing the financial sector would lead to increased savings, encourage investment, and stimulate economic growth, and thus many countries, especially developing countries, adopted financial liberalization as a way to advance their economies, while critics of financial liberalization have argued that it may increase the likelihood of financial crises by encouraging financial institutions to take risks in their lending practices to earn higher returns, and so the current research focuses on studying the impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1977- 2020, using the ARDL model, and the domestic credit provided to the private sector and the interest rate were used as indicators of liberalizing the domestic banking system, and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP as an indicator of capital liberalization.

The study concluded that there is an adverse and insignificant effect of the domestic credit provided to the private sector on economic growth, and the presence of an adverse and moral effect of the interest rate on economic growth, and a direct and insignificant effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the long term.

This means that the McKinnon-Shaw model is not supported in the long term on the Egyptian economy during the study period.