الاستدلال السياسي و بناء الأمن السياسي في السودان بعد عام 2019

Abstract EN

The political deduction in political security issues has become one of the topics that related with the attention of researchers and specialists.

on the philosophical level, the deduction based on a certain reason to be as the basis for proving a specific issue that cannot be tackled by the existence of contradictions between two extremes- paradigm (security and instability).

so that, the future of political security in Sudan is still instability, although the international community's ability to impose their comprehensive peace agreement since February 2005, and according to the requirements of what included in the clauses of the agreement to complete the procurement of democratic transition period, as for the Sudanese opposition forces and the Sudan people's liberation movement which are represented the real partners of power.

so, the ability of the national congress party at that time could have power to consolidate its inclusiveness as a dominant political party.

from the another hand, the possibilities to infer the dimensions of political security in Sudan are ready to restore the army’s control over the political life, but with the need to maintain the settlement of critical political issues according to a new criteria that take into account the demands of civil forces; however, the civilian leadership was still inactive by as a result of internal divisions and rivalries within, so that the local, regional and international pressures remain to be the only source of strength to achieve a kind of consensus and satisfaction to overcome the critical period and accomplish what can be achieved for the benefit of the political security for Sudan, at the present and future alike.

finally, the absence of mechanisms for managing the divergent interests between civil and military leaders may lead to an unstable civil-military alliance, and they concern about losing of the whole absolute privileges and powers that they enjoyed during the past three decades for the rule of former president Omar al-Bashir, leaving the civilian leadership in 2019 to be as a drastically situation in its inability to form a united front that pushed towards neutralizing the military’s authority or resorting to confront a new period as a returning of violence as what happened in the past.

as for the multiplicity of factors affecting on the political security crisis in Sudan, it meant that there is no real solution to subsequent crises in the future, so that the possibility of shifting towards civilian rule remains the only way to manage differences.

and the differences between civilians and military alike might erupted at any reason or incentive.