النمو الاقتصادي و البطالة في ليبيا : دراسة قياسية في إطار قانون Okun المطور، "علاقة Gordon"

Abstract EN

The study aimed to analyze and measure the impact of economic growth on unemployment rates in the Libyan economy for the period (1980 - 2012) using methods of time series analysis of the study variables.

To achieve this goal, the "Okun" relationship developed by Gordon 1984 was estimated by breaking down the time series for both GDP and unemployment rates through the Prescott filter (HP-Filter), in order to predetermine the general trend of unemployment and the GDP, The study used a self-regression model for distributed slowdowns (The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach – ARDL) to identify joint integration between the two variables, and test the concept of causality Granger.

The study concluded that the Gordon Law cannot be applied in the Libyan economy, meaning that economic growth rates do not contribute to alleviating unemployment rates, the results of the estimate also indicated that there is no causal relationship between the two variables in the short term.