الأزمة السورية (2011-2022)‎ : دراسة تحليلية

Abstract EN

The paper dealt with future scenarios for the Syrian crisis.

The paper aims to introduce the concept of the scenario and foresee the future, and the paper also aims to identify the most important future scenarios for the Syrian crisis.

The problem of the paper discusses the roots and causes of the Syrian crisis, the extent of its complexity and its reflection on the future of the conflict.

Based on these forms, the paper raises a main question that what are the most important main scenarios that determine the future of the conflict in Syria.

The paper uses the historical and descriptive approaches to identify the concept of scenarios.

The paper also uses the analytical method to identify the most prominent future scenarios of the Syrian crisis.

The paper reached a set of results, the most important of which are: The Syrian crisis is open to all scenarios.

The complexity of the Syrian crisis and the intertwining of local, regional and international actors in it has led to a multitude of scenarios and thus the difficulty of solving them.

The scenario of the fall of Assad is considered the most likely scenario, given the state of collapse affecting the Syrian state and the rise of the anti-regime force.

The paper also came out with a set of recommendations, the most important of which are: The Assad regime should adopt the principle of dialogue and try to end the Syrian crisis.

All actors in the Syrian crisis must exert more efforts in order to reach a consensual formula that is in the interest of the Syrian citizen.

All actors in the Syrian crisis must work to limit the effects of the Syrian crisis on the Syrian person.