تقدير أثر عتبة التضخم على النمو الاقتصادي في السودان 1990-2018 م

Abstract EN

The study aimed to estimate and analyze the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Sudan using the smooth transition inflation threshold model (STR), and to determine the direction of the impact of inflation on economic growth below and above the estimated threshold.

The study showed a non-linear relationship between economic growth and inflation, as the study was able to level the inflation threshold 13.012, i.e.

inflation rates below the threshold level have a positive impact on economic growth while inflation rates that are higher than the threshold level have a negative impact on economic growth, the study also found using (EGARCH) to have an impact on economic growth.

The study recommends economic policies that strengthen the production base to encourage the production and abundance of major export commodities (increased production of cotton, peanuts, sesame and Arabic gum) and import replacement to curb domestic demand in order to contain import growth and ease inflationary pressures.