التقدير القياسي لأثر أهم المتغيرات الاقتصادية على قيمة الناتج المحلي الزراعي المصري باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزعة (ARDL)‎

Abstract EN

Egypt has recently been exposed to many economic and political changes, which led to the continuous decline of the relative weight of the value of the agricultural GDP of the gross domestic product from 21.10% in 1990 to about 11.28% in 2018.

Accordingly, the study aims to identify the performance of the Egyptian agricultural sector from During the study of the development of agricultural GDP and the most important economic variables affecting the value of agricultural GDP.

And the standard estimate of the most important determining and influencing factors on the value of the Egyptian agricultural GDP, and shedding light on the reasons for the decline in its contribution to the GDP during the period (1990-2018).

The most important results of the study were: - The annual rate of increase in crop area, agricultural investment, number of agricultural employment, value of agricultural exports, number of animal units, strength of agricultural machinery and agricultural loans amounted to about 1.0%, 6.3%, 1.6%, 17.1%, 1.4%, 4.6%, 35.7%, Respectively.

- The existence of a statistically significant direct relationship at 1% level of significance between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the crop area X1, as increasing the crop area by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP by 7.84% and 21.4% in the short and long run, respectively.

- The existence of a statistically significant direct relationship at the 1% level of significance of 1% between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the value of agricultural investment X2, as an increase in agricultural investment by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP by 3.29% and 9.99% in the short and long run, respectively.

- The existence of a statistically non-significant direct relationship between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the number of agricultural workers X3, which means the weak effect of agricultural workers on the value of agricultural GDP in the short term, but it is significant in the long run.

An increase in the number of agricultural workers by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of Agricultural GDP by 0.14% and 21.8% in the short and long run, respectively.

- The existence of a statistically significant direct relationship at 1% level of significance between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the value of agricultural exports X4, as increasing the value of agricultural exports by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP by 1.65%, 1.85% in the short and long run.

respectively.

- There is a statistically non-significant direct relationship between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the number of livestock units X5, which means that the impact of livestock units on the value of agricultural GDP is weak, but it is significant in the long run.

An increase in the number of animal units by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP.

By 0.97% and 8.29% in the short and long run, respectively.

The explanation is that the laying hen is produced after about six months, and the calves producing milk are considered productive after three years, and the fattening animals such as sheep and goats are considered productive after one year.

- The sign of the variable of the power of agricultural machines X5 does not agree with the economic theory in the short term, indicating that there is a statistically direct positive relationship at the level of statistical significance of 1% between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the strength of agricultural machines X6 in the long term, as the increase in the power of agricultural machines by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP by 8.59%.

- The existence of a statistically significant positive relationship at the1% level of significance between the value of agricultural GDP Y and the value of agricultural loans X7 in the short and long term, as increasing the value of agricultural loans by 10% will lead to an increase in the value of agricultural GDP by 1.33%, 5.02% the short run and long run respectively.

- The value of (CointEq (-1)) is about (-0.463) and is statistically significant at the level of 1% which indicates that 46.3% of all deviations and imbalances in the equilibrium of the explanatory variables in the previous year are corrected in the current year and the equilibrium is reached after about Two years and a month.

Based on the above, the study recommends: 1- Paying attention to agricultural development programs to raise the efficiency of agricultural economic resources, leading to an increase in agricultural production necessary to advance economic development.

2- Working to increase the volume of local agricultural production to the degree that helps in achieving horizontal and vertical agricultural development.

This depends on two factors, namely horizontal agricultural expansion represented by increasing the crop area by adding new agricultural lands that have irrigation water, preserving old agricultural lands and increasing their productivity, and vertical expansion.

through expanding the use of technology and modern technology in Egyptian agriculture by increasing the number of modern agricultural equipment, machines and scientific methods, and paying attention to training workers in order to be able to adopt modern technology and agricultural mechanization.

3- Paying attention to the development of the animal production sector due to its great contribution to agricultural production by providing and encouraging investments in this field.

4- Reconsidering the policies related to agricultural loans so that they are in line with the objective of increasing the value of agricultural GDP, and encouraging investment in the agricultural sector.