الآثار المستقبلية المتوقعة لسد النهضة الأثيوبي على مياه الري و الزراعة في مصر

Abstract EN

The realization of the agricultural sector linked to the abundance of resources, especially the most scarce water resources, where Egypt's share of the Nile water is stable, which amounts to 55.5 billion cubic meters annually, and for many years, the water uses in Egypt exceeded the available resources.

The problem of the study summarized in the problems that will be exposed to irrigation and agriculture in Egypt due to the construction of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will have negative repercussions on the Egyptian agricultural sector.

The dam, by estimating possible future scenarios for the impact of the dam on Egypt's water share of the Nile water and then on the amount of water available for irrigation, thus affecting the cultivated area in Egypt within three scenarios related to the filling period of the dam reservoir, which includes three, five or seven years.

Agriculture is the most water-use sector, utilizing about 61.09 billion m3 annually, equivalent to 83.21% of total water use in Egypt, and increasing annually by 3.07 billion m3 .

According to the projections of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the reservoir's capacity estimated at 74.5 billion cubic meters.

If the reservoir filled in three years, Egypt's share of the Nile water affected by a decrease of 24.83 billion m3 .

About 14.9 billion m3 , while the shortfall in seven years will be about 10.64 billion m3 .

It expected that in 2022, there will be a water deficit of about 60.156 billion m3 , and in 2024, the total expected water deficit would be about 55.058 billion m3 .

In addition, that the deficit in 2026 (about 55.534 billion m3 ).

It expected that the expected impact of the construction of the Renaissance Dam on agriculture, according to the periods of filling the dam would decrease the cultivated area in Egypt decreased by about 2.039 million feddans in 2022.

While the impact of the construction of the dam will decrease the cultivated area by about 1.223 million acres in 2024.

While it will reach Reduced cultivated area to about 0.874 million feddans if the dam reservoir is filled in seven years.