دراسة اقتصادية للتجارة الخارجية للأسماك و أهم العوامل المؤثرة عليها

Abstract EN

Egypt suffers from a large deficit in the fish trade balance which reached about 593.2 million dollars, and a decrease in the rate of fish exports coverage of its imports, which reached about 6.1% during the period (2015-2019), this research aimed to study the current state of foreign trade of fish and identify the most important factors affecting it.

The main results of the research are as follows: -The value of the deficit in the trade balance of fish in Egypt, the rate of export coverage of Egyptian imports, the amount of imports, the value of imports, the amount of exports, and the value of Egyptian exports of fish have taken an increasing trend during the period (2005-2019) with annual growth rates, respectively, amounting to 10.3 %, 4.9%, 7.7%, 10.5%, 12.8%, 13.8% of the average for each of them during the study period.

-Frozen fish are the most important imported groups of fish in Egypt during the period (2015-2019) with an average amount of about 90.9% of the total Egyptian imports of fish, while fresh or chilled fish are the most important exported groups of fish during that period with an average amount of about 71.7% of the total amount of Egyptian exports of fish.

-Both Egyptian imports and exports of fish were characterized by geographical concentration during the period (2015-2019), where the geographical concentration factor of each of them respectively reached about 36.5%, 36%, Where more than 50% of the amount of Egyptian imports of fish is concentrated from only three countries: the Netherlands, Norway, and Brazil, while more than 60% of the amount of Egyptian exports of fish is concentrated in only four countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Lebanon.

-Increasing the monthly import price per ton of fish by 10%, leads to a decrease in the monthly import quantity of them by 16.1%, while an increase in the monthly export price per ton of fish by 10% leads to an increase in the monthly export amount of them by 1.7%.

-The change in the food gap from fish and the retail price of poultry explain about 98.3% of the changes in the quantity of Egyptian imports of fish during the period (2005-2018), while the change in the total imports of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Kuwait from fresh or chilled fish explains about 99.7% of the changes in the amount of Egyptian exports of fish during that period.

The research recommended the following: - Reducing imports of expensive fish species, such as crustaceans and molluscs, and increase its exports.

- Expanding fish imports from multiple markets, and maintaining the current markets for Egyptian exports of fish, in addition to working to open new markets.

- Importing fish during the months from February to June and in December, and exporting fish during the months from April to September.