رؤية اقتصادية لمستقبل استصلاح الأراضي الجديدة بمحافظة الإسماعيلية

Abstract EN

The importance of this study stems from the economic planning of the Egyptian land reclamation policy to confront the challenges that have been imposed on Egyptian agriculture in terms of a steady increase in the population and thus an increase in the demand for food and clothing, which requires expansion in the reclamation of new lands to meet these needs, and from this it was necessary to go Towards the expansion of the reclamation of new lands To meet these needs, and from here it was necessary to go towards expansion in the reclamation of new lands, and because the Ismailia Governorate is one of the governorates that have large areas of unused desert back lands, especially in the center of Qantara Sharq, which has an area of about 300 thousand acres that fall within The state’s plan to reclaim a million and a half million acres, and this area includes the center of Qantara, east of Al-Amal Village, which has an area of about 2500 acres, in which the state provided all services such as a police station, a service complex, a water purification plant, places of worship and roads, where this area was distributed to young graduates and work began On their actual reclamation, it is therefore necessary to complete the reclamation of the remaining untapped lands in the Qantara Center east.

The study targeted the development of the agricultural sector by increasing the agricultural land area through horizontal expansion in Ismailia Governorate, and the study was based on achieving its objectives based on the descriptive and inferential approach, where the necessary equations and prediction work and forecasting and future visualization of the study variables were estimated by using ARIMA analysis using Bootstrap method.

ARIMA Model- Box- Jenkins is predicted using Method Bootstrap.

The study was approved to obtain its data from many official and unofficial bodies, namely the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (Directorate of Agriculture in Ismailia Governorate), and the data of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.

The most important results were as follows: - 1- The necessity to start the state’s plan to reclaim the lands of the study area and to offer these lands to young graduates and investors.

2- Providing an infrastructure in the study area that is attractive to the population in order to accommodate the size of the workforce that will arrive in the study area, which is close to 80 thousand workers in addition to those who will be present with their families.

3- The state adopted the study proposal in terms of crop composition, which adds to the Egyptian agricultural patch about 40 thousand acres of wheat, 20 thousand acres in a permanent fee, 20 thousand acres of winter tomatoes, and 20 thousand acres of winter potatoes in the winter loop, and about 40 thousand acres From corn to the mole, 20 thousand acres of peanuts, 20 thousand acres of summer tomatoes, and about 20 thousand acres of summer potatoes in the summer loop.